CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2013-09-29T22:40:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-09-29T22:40Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/3302/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-10-02T01:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-10-02T04:42Z (-10.9h, +9.4h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.
Click here for full results:
http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-09-29_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE037/Detailed_results_2013-09-29_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE037.txt
NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Lead Time: 7.78 hour(s)
Difference: -3.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-10-01T17:33Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy